Investing.com — Statements from several Federal Reserve officials this week will likely be closely watched as traders attempt to determine what the central bank will do next after it signalled a start to a new easing cycle with a super-sized interest rate cut.
The Fed slashed interest rates by 50 basis points last Wednesday and indicated that it would roll out further cuts this year in a bid to help shore up the economy following a prolonged battle against surging inflation.
The Federal Open Market Committee, the FOMC, cut its benchmark rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% after leaving borrowing costs at a more than two-decade high for over a year. The decision wasn’t unanimous as Fed Governor Michelle Bowman preferred to lower rates by just 25 basis points.
It was the first reduction since March 2020. The size of the cut, along with the updated “dot plot” of officials’ forecasts, suggested that policymakers may be attempting to move to stem any weakening in the economy after the period of elevated rates.
Investors will likely hear more about the decision from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on Monday, followed by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee.
Meanwhile, Bowman is set to speak on Tuesday and again on Thursday. Last week, she has voiced concerns that the jumbo drawdown would send the wrong signal with the pace of price increases in the US currently above the Fed’s 2% goal.
Bowman’s comments clashed with those of fellow Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who argued that a big cut was needed to keep inflation from undershooting the target.
Elsewhere, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on Thursday at the 10th annual US Treasury Market Conference. New York Fed President John Williams and Vice Chair of Supervision Michael Barr will also speak at the same event.
“[W]e will be paying close attention to a slew of Fed speakers to try and parse out what is next for the Fed,” analysts at Bank of America said in a note to clients.
Separately, they added that, in their view, inflation figures are no longer the “most important” data point to watch to gauge upcoming Fed policy decisions. Instead, they said labor market numbers are now more crucial, given that the Fed has seemingly already started its cutting cycle.
Powell told reporters last week that the labor market is in “solid condition,” adding that the rate cut was intended to bolster job demand. In August, the US economy added fewer jobs than anticipated, although the unemployment rate slowed slightly to 4.2%.
September’s job market reading is set to be released on Oct. 4.
