Coinbase stock price will be in the spotlight next week as the blue-chip crypto exchange publishes its fourth quarter earnings that will cap its best year on record. COIN has remained in a tight range this year as Bitcoin and most altcoins retreated. It ended the week at $275, down by almost 22% from its highest level in 2024. So, what next for the COIN and CONY stocks?
Coinbase tailwinds and headwinds
Coinbase, the biggest crypto exchange in the United States, has had numerous tailwinds that have pushed its stock up by 776% from its lowest point in 2023.
Cryptocurrencies have surged, with Bitcoin hovering near its all-time high and the market cap of all coins jumping to over $3 trillion. Coinbase and other crypto exchanges do well when these coins are thriving.
Coinbase has also expanded its crypto custody business as it has become the biggest custodian in the US. It houses Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs for companies like Grayscale and Blackrock. It will likely house more funds when they are approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Further, Coinbase launched Base, a layer-2 network that has become the third-biggest chain in the industry. Data shows that the Base Blockchain protocols handled over $10.7 billion in volume in the last seven days and $50 billion in the last 30 days.
As we have written before, Base Blockchain valuation may get to over $10 billion when Coinbase decides to launch its airdrop.
Coinbase’s revenue has also become highly diversified, with subscriptions playing an important role.
However, the company has faced numerous challenges. Competition is the biggest challenge as the company has continued to lose market share to foreign firms like Crypto.com, Bybit, and OKX. Coinbase has also lost share to DEX networks like Raydium, Orca, and Jupiter.
Coinbase earnings preview
Coinbase will publish its financial results on Thursday next week. The average revenue estimate will be $1.75 billion, a 83% surge from a year earlier. If that figure is accurate, it will bring its annual revenue to $6.01 billion, up by about 93% from 2023.
Coinbase’s earnings per share will move from $1.01 in Q4’23 to $1.9 last year, while the annual EPS will be $6.6.
Analysts expect that Coinbase’s earnings and revenue will be $4.78 and $6.3 billion in 2025. However, as in the past, it has always been difficult to predict Coinbase’s earnings because of the volatility of the crypto market.
The most recent earnings report showed that Coinbase’s total revenue was $674 million in the third quarter. Notably, most of these numbers came from subscriptions and services, which brought in $334 million. Its transaction revenue was $284 million.
That is a sign that the company has transitioned its business, which will ensure that it keeps doing well even in crypto bear markets.
Coinbase stock price forecast
COIN stock chart by TradingView
The weekly chart shows that the COIN stock price bottomed at $31 in 2023 and then rebounded to a high of $350 this year. It is now hovering at a key level that has coincided with the highest swing on March 25. The stock remains above the 50-week and 25-week moving averages.
Therefore, the stock will likely bounce back in the coming weeks as bulls target the YTD high of $350. A break above that level will point to more gains, potentially to $430, up by 57% from the current level.
A Coinbase stock price rebound will likely lead to more gains for the CONY ETF. CONY is a covered call ETF that invests in Coinbase stock and then sells call options of the same.
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