Eli Lilly saw its shares crash in early trade on Tuesday as the pharm major provided its revenue outlook for 2024 and 2025.
The pharma major cut its revenue guidance for the year leading to an around 8% dip in its shares.
The stock has gone down over 22% in the past six months.
Eli Lily 2024 revenue guidance
Eli Lilly anticipates full-year worldwide revenue of approximately $45.0 billion in 2024, reflecting a 32% year-over-year growth but falling slightly below the consensus estimate of $45.49 billion.
The company had earlier shared a revenue guidance of $45.4 billion to $46 billion earlier in October.
The company expects fourth-quarter 2024 revenue of approximately $13.5 billion, a 45% year-over-year increase, but below the consensus of $13.97 billion.
The updated Q4 2024 revenue guidance is $400 million, or about 3%, lower than the range provided during the third-quarter earnings call.
The company attributes this to a less aggressive acceleration in U.S. incretin market growth and lower-than-expected channel inventory levels at year-end.
Key contributors to 2024 revenue include $3.5 billion from Mounjaro and $1.9 billion from Zepbound.
Non-incretin revenue also posted strong growth, increasing by 20% year-over-year, supported by oncology, immunology, and neuroscience medicines.
David Ricks, Lilly Chair and CEO, highlighted the company’s ongoing efforts to enhance manufacturing capabilities:
“We’ll bring additional manufacturing capacity online and expect to produce at least 60% more salable doses of incretins in the first half of the year compared to the first half of 2024.”
Ricks also emphasized the strong performance of non-incretin medicines and continued progress in manufacturing build-outs to meet demand.
Eli Lily 2025 revenue guidance
Eli Lilly has projected its revenue for 2025 to be in the range of $58.0 billion to $61.0 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $58.6 billion. The company’s outlook reflects optimism in its growth strategy and portfolio expansion.
Key drivers of this growth include the strong performance of new medicines such as Jaypirca, Ebglyss, Omvoh, and Kisunla.
These treatments are expected to gain traction in the coming year, contributing significantly to the company’s top line.
Additionally, the expansion of Mounjaro into more markets is anticipated to provide a robust boost to revenue.
The therapy has been a key growth contributor and is poised to capture further market share.
Eli Lilly is also looking forward to potential launches of new therapies, including imlunestrant, a promising candidate for the treatment of metastatic breast cancer. If approved, these additions could further solidify the company’s position in the pharmaceutical industry.
The company’s 2025 guidance also factors in market dynamics and channel inventory trends for incretins.
Eli Lilly remains confident in its growth trajectory, citing strong demand for existing products and a robust pipeline of new therapies to drive future performance.
The company currently plans to share its full Q4 2024 financial results, including with respect to other metrics included in its financial guidance, and 2025 financial guidance on February 6, 2025.
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